Giants to win NFC East, Jets 3rd in AFC East: Harvard study

Harvard isn’t exactly known for producing tons of NFL talent, but one Ivy Leaguer could make a name for himself with football predictions.

Kurt Bullard — writing for the student-run Harvard Sports Analysis Collective — created a way to estimate NFL team strength, and according to his new prediction model, the Seahawks (95%) have the greatest chance to make the playoffs next season.

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The Giants (42%) would win the NFC East, but the Jets would fall behind the Dolphins (77%) and the Patriots (62%) in the AFC East, Bullard said.

Rex Ryan’s Bills team (43%) would finish last in its division.

“The method that I came up with uses Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value statistic, the site’s best measure of trying to tease out individual talent. Then, using ESPN’s NFL depth charts, I aggregated each team’s per game approximate value of what I considered to be the ‘core’ makeup of an NFL team: QB, RB, 2 WR, TE, Top 2 OL, the Top-4 ‘Front Seven’ defensive players, and the Top-2 players from the secondary,” Bullard wrote.

In some cases, even though Bullard’s calculations might show that Team A is a stronger than Team B, Team A’s playoff chances might be lower based on how the divisions are set up. For example, the Falcons come in at No. 18 in team strength, but the NFC South squad ranked 12th in highest playoff percentage.

Here is the percentage chance of making the playoffs for every NFL team:

Seahawks — 95%

Packers — 93%

Dolphins — 77%

Chiefs — 66%

Patriots — 62%

Colts — 62%

Broncos — 62%

Jets — 56%

Texans — 54%

Lions — 53%

Steelers — 51%

Falcons — 51%

Bills — 43%

Giants — 42%

Saints — 42%

Bengals — 39%

Eagles — 35%

Chargers — 33%

Cardinals — 29%

Bears — 25%

Cowboys — 23%

Browns — 20%

Panthers — 19%

Washington — 18%

Vikings — 12%

49ers — 10%

Rams — 10%

Ravens — 9%

Jaguars — 3%

Buccaneers — 3%

Titans — 2%

Raiders — 1%

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